{"id":327561,"date":"2026-01-19T08:54:48","date_gmt":"2026-01-19T16:54:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/?p=327561"},"modified":"2026-01-22T10:48:43","modified_gmt":"2026-01-22T18:48:43","slug":"home-entertainment-forecast-2026-streaming-flexes-its-muscle-transactional-a-critical-revenue-bridge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/home-entertainment-forecast-2026-streaming-flexes-its-muscle-transactional-a-critical-revenue-bridge\/","title":{"rendered":"Home Entertainment Forecast 2026: Streaming Flexes Its Muscle, Transactional a Critical Revenue Bridge"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The home entertainment industry settled into a more stable pattern in 2025, with the free ad-supported streaming and transactional marketplaces complementing a subscription streaming business that began to rake in more profits and increase its dominance in Hollywood.<\/p>\n<p>Streaming is expected to continue to flex its muscle in 2026, with Netflix on the verge of gobbling up Warner Bros. Discovery\u2019s studio and streaming businesses \u2014 and with growth coming mostly from ad-supported models, along with live sports and other event programming.<\/p>\n<p>The transactional business, meanwhile, will continue to serve as a premium monetization bridge between theatrical, subscription and free viewing \u2014 reinforcing ownership, catalog value, and event-driven releases in an otherwise flat-fee streaming world.<\/p>\n<p>Looking back, much of what happened in 2025 set the stage for what is expected to happen in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Whether or not Netflix ends up jumping over political, regulatory and other hurdles in purchasing much of WBD, the top streamer has clearly won the streaming wars. Even before the studio buy, analyst Evan Shapiro stunned the audience at a NATPE session in Miami early in the year when he proclaimed that the streaming wars were over \u2014 and Netflix had won.<\/p>\n<p>The analyst, who charts media\u2019s future through his essays on his <em>Media War &amp; Peace Newsletter<\/em> and co-hosts \u201cThe Media Odyssey\u201d podcast, cited Netflix\u2019s high subscriber count, which dwarfs that of the other subscription streaming heavyweights, and noted that the company\u2019s valuation at the time was significantly higher than the combined valuation of Comcast, Disney, Fox, Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery.<\/p>\n<p>Shapiro now says he sees Netflix as the likely winner in the Warner battle, \u201cbut I do anticipate a dark horse to enter the race if Netflix hits bumps on the approval process.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cDepending on when Tim Cook makes an exit, it could be Apple,\u201d he posits, which would also be a streamer taking over a Hollywood studio.<\/p>\n<p>Paramount Skydance still lurks, however, and could emerge triumphant in buying Warner Bros. Discovery, adding the studio\u2019s HBO Max streaming service to its direct-to-consumer lineup, including Paramount+, led by former Netflix exec Cindy Holland.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRegardless of whether Netflix or Paramount wins Warner, HBO is highly likely to see a greatly expanded reach and see accelerated growth,\u201d says Wedbush Securities media analyst Michael Pachter. \u201cNetflix is more likely to integrate HBO into its core offering, which will accelerate growth even more rapidly.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In an added flourish to Netflix\u2019s year, the service beat out Prime Video after three years at No. 2 on Parks Associates\u2019 \u201cTop 10 SVODs by Subscribers\u201d chart.<\/p>\n<p>Netflix\u2019s financial footprint also dwarfed its competitors in 2025. For the year, Netflix delivered $45.2 billion in revenue, up 16% year over year. Ad revenue rose more than 250% to more than $1.5 billion. Net income for the year was $10.98 billion, versus $8.71 billion in 2024. Netflix ended 2025 with more than 325 million paid subscribers, up from 301 million subs at the end of 2024.<\/p>\n<p>Disney\u2019s direct-to-consumer business segment, which includes Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+ and the recently launched ESPN Unlimited, in September reported a fiscal-year profit of $1.3 billion, a massive increase from the $143 million the company reported for the prior fiscal year. Disney+ and Hulu (Hulu and Hulu + Live TV) together had 196 million paid subscribers worldwide as of Sept. 30.<\/p>\n<p>Paramount\u2019s direct-to-consumer segment, which includes Paramount+, Pluto TV and BET+, reported net income of $153 million for the year through Sept. 30, a reversal from a net loss of $211 million in the prior-year period. Paramount streamers ended the period with 79.1 million paid subscribers, up 10% from the previous year.<\/p>\n<p>Warner Bros. Discovery\u2019s direct-to-consumer segment reported a profit of $977 million through Sept. 30, up significantly from $268 million in the prior-year period. The segment, which includes HBO linear, HBO Max and Discovery+, reported 128 million paid subscribers, up from 110.5 million in 2024.<\/p>\n<p>NBCUniversal\u2019s Peacock streaming service was an outlier, reporting a net loss of $533 million for the year through Sept. 30. The platform ended the fiscal period with 41 million paid subscribers, up from 36 million subs a year earlier.<\/p>\n<p>Apple TV ended its fiscal year (12 months ended Sept. 27) with a reported 45 million paid subscribers. The company does not break out direct-to-consumer fiscal data.<\/p>\n<p>And Amazon\u2019s Prime Video reportedly has more than 200 million subscribers across 23 countries. Amazon does not break out subscriber or fiscal data for the streaming platform, which is also available as a standalone service, and is included free with a Prime membership. Media reports suggest Prime Video generated revenue of $17.5 billion in 2025, up from $14 billion in 2024.<\/p>\n<p>The pervasiveness of streaming is underscored by Parks Associates\u2019 latest annual \u201cState of Streaming\u201d report, which found that the SVOD market as a whole has achieved a 91% penetration rate among U.S. households. The pay-TV business, in comparison, has a meager 41% household penetration rate.<\/p>\n<p>On average, according to Parks Associates, U.S. SVOD households subscribed to 5.9 SVOD services in 2025, up from 5.6 in 2024. Parks Associates expects the average number of SVOD services subscribed to by SVOD households in 2026 to grow slightly, to 6, driven largely by bundling and discounted promotional rates.<\/p>\n<p>As streaming became even more entrenched in U.S. homes, SVOD services felt safe to go on a price hike binge. Netflix kicked off 2025 by increasing prices for all U.S. plans, raising the ad-supported plan to $7.99, the standard ad-free plan to $17.99, and the premium plan to $24.99 monthly. Disney, HBO Max and Apple TV+ (now just Apple TV) subsequently raised their monthly subscription prices by a few dollars as well.<\/p>\n<p>Streamers will continue to raise prices going forward, predicts Michael Goodman, director of entertainment research for Parks Associates. He says the price hikes, particularly on premium tiers, \u201care as much about driving consumers to the ad-supported tiers as they are about driving revenue growth.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>After falling 2.6% in 2025 to an average of $10.96 as cheaper ad-supported tiers took hold, average revenue per SVOD service will once again grow in 2026, Goodman predicts, reaching $11.30 by the end of the year.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs to when we will see price hikes slow or even stop, it is largely in the hands of consumers,\u201d Goodman maintains. \u201cUntil we see net adds stall or decline as a result of price hikes, services have no incentive to stop raising prices.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-328386 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Looper-Consolidation.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"900\" height=\"520\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Looper-Consolidation.jpg 900w, https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Looper-Consolidation-300x173.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Looper-Consolidation-768x444.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Looper-Consolidation-800x462.jpg 800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In a search for increased profits, the industry can also expect more consolidation in the coming year, according to industry leaders surveyed by Looper Insights. In the survey, a whopping 76.5% expect that mounting pressure to improve profitability will force mid-tier streamers to sell or merge as growth stalls. That consolidation will mean less new content for consumers.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cStreaming consolidation is likely to mean fewer shows overall, with budgets and attention concentrated on bigger, safer bets,\u201d Parks\u2019 Goodman says. \u201cMid-budget and niche originals are more likely to be cut, shows will be given less of a chance to prove themselves and will be canceled faster, and franchises, sequels and event programming that can travel globally and reduce churn will be prioritized.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs ad-supported tiers grow, platforms will favor sticky content like procedurals, reality and comfort TV that drive long viewing sessions, while libraries become less permanent as titles rotate in and out for cost control. While there may be the occasional mega-hits, overall there will be less experimentation, fewer risk-taking projects, and less catalog stability for viewers.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Bundles, as they did in 2025, will increase, as services that are raising prices look to offer more value for price-conscious consumers.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRegardless of who wins the fight for WBD, the direction is the same \u2014 fewer giants controlling more premium IP, which will lead to more bundling and fewer standalone \u2018must have\u2019 alternatives,\u201d Parks\u2019 Goodman says. \u201cInstead of subscribing to services individually, a growing segment of the population will buy a bundle of SVOD services, either through the services themselves, TV providers, or broadband\/mobile bundles, as this helps mitigate price increases and reduce churn. On the live-TV side, expect to see more skinny\/genre-specific bundles such as sports, news, entertainment, etc., similarly to what YouTube TV and Sling TV are doing.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Sling TV offers mini-bundles that allow consumers to curate their content choices, including sports.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cLook for churn-reducing bundling across lifestyle products \u2014 especially from mobile and retail platforms,\u201d analyst Shapiro adds.<\/p>\n<p>Another key trend that developed in 2025 and is expected to accelerate in 2026 is the expansion of ad-supported tiers to lower the price for subscribers. During the annual Tech Trends to Watch presentation Jan. 4 at this year\u2019s CES in Las Vegas, show marketing and communications VP Melissa Harrison called out \u201cthe rise of ad-supported streaming\u201d as a primary driver in a projected 4.2% uptick for 2026 in consumer spending on software and services.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWith 34% of subscribers to ad-supported tiers saying the lower monthly price makes SVOD services more affordable, and an additional 31% not minding ads if it saves them money, affordability is becoming a significant factor in SVOD subscription growth, while providing an alternative to cancellation,\u201d Parks\u2019 Goodman says.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-328385 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Parks-Ad-Tier.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"900\" height=\"656\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Parks-Ad-Tier.jpg 900w, https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Parks-Ad-Tier-300x219.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Parks-Ad-Tier-768x560.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Parks-Ad-Tier-800x583.jpg 800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>According to the Parks Associates Subscription TV Forecast, ad-supported tiers are projected to account for all SVOD subscription growth in 2026, growing from nearly 363 million in the U.S. in 2025 to nearly 376 million in 2026. At the same time, subscriptions to ad-free premium tiers are projected to fall slightly from 280 million in 2025 to 279 million in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cCoinciding with this will be more features designed around ads (i.e., targeting, new formats), and in some cases increased ad loads,\u201d Goodman says.<\/p>\n<p>Analyst Shapiro is even more bullish on ad-supported free streaming.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI predict that the ad-free TV viewer will disappear,\u201d adds Shapiro. \u201cYes, viewers will have some ad-free experiences, but all regular TV viewers will see ads, every week, in sports, news, and through unavoidable ads on their TV home screen.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The industry is entering a new era, pundits say, where, in many ways, streaming is television.<\/p>\n<p>Lucas Bertrand, founder and CEO of Looper Insights, calls it a \u201creset phase.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe challenge in 2026 isn\u2019t content volume anymore; it\u2019s visibility,\u201d he says. \u201cAs discovery shifts to TV operating systems and AI assistants, even the biggest streamers will have to work much harder to secure visibility.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Consequently, in Looper Insights\u2019 survey of industry leaders, the biggest segment (37.7%) said unified discovery across multiple streaming services and live channels will drive the next generation of streaming user interfaces in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Hub analyst Mark Loughney forecasts that Amazon will tackle the discovery problem.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs frustration with content search and discovery reaches a tipping point, 2026 could see Amazon Prime Video introduce a universal video search experience that spans platforms \u2014 including services outside the Amazon ecosystem,\u201d he predicts. \u201cBy positioning itself as the easiest place to find anything to watch, Amazon stands to become a default viewing hub.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/eepurl.com\/dgLnU5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Subscribe HERE to the FREE <em>Media Play News<\/em> Daily Newsletter!<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<h2>YouTube as the New Tube<\/h2>\n<p>Looming large in the background of the streaming landscape is YouTube, the streaming behemoth owned by Google, which is ramping up the competition.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTraditional streamers aren\u2019t competing with each other anymore; they\u2019re competing with YouTube for TV viewers\u2019 attention,\u201d Looper Insights\u2019 Bertrand notes. \u201cThat means rethinking discovery, pacing, and even creator-driven formats if they want to stay relevant.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNext summer, on TVs, YouTube will surpass all of broadcast combined,\u201d analyst Shapiro predicts.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-328384 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Looper-Streaming.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"900\" height=\"563\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Looper-Streaming.jpg 900w, https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Looper-Streaming-300x188.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Looper-Streaming-768x480.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Looper-Streaming-800x500.jpg 800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The streaming goliath has already made inroads in the traditional TV space. YouTube got into the sports game in 2025, exclusively live-streaming the first game of the 2025 NFL season in S\u00e3o Paulo, Brazil, in September to a worldwide audience (outside North America) on YouTube and YouTube TV. This marked the first exclusive NFL game to be streamed live and for free in its entirety on YouTube. YouTube also tangled with Disney over carriage costs on its OTT pay-TV platform YouTube TV. The dustup left YouTube TV subscribers unable to watch content from Disney networks, including ESPN, ABC, Disney Channel, FX, National Geographic and Freeform.<\/p>\n<p>The two companies ultimately settled their dispute, but the fracas showed YouTube was ready to go toe-to-toe with traditional media giants. As a coda to YouTube\u2019s shift into the traditional TV space last year, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences signed a multiyear deal giving YouTube exclusive global rights to the Oscars \u2014 a broadcast TV staple \u2014 from 2029 to 2033.<\/p>\n<p>A key component to YouTube content, the independent creators who populate its service, will also move into the traditional entertainment space, many predict.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Affinity Economy \u2014 the melding of the Creator Economy and Traditional Media \u2014 will take over,\u201d Shapiro says. \u201cThis means that more creators will become studios and more studios and brands will act like creators \u2014 leaning into social video and the rules of the Creator Economy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNext year we\u2019ll see creators bypass social platforms entirely and go straight to the living room via AVOD and FAST,\u201d says Vikrant Mathur, co-founder of FAST channel distributor Future Today. \u201cThese streaming platforms are the new frontier as they\u2019re more flexible, more aligned with how audiences actually watch content, and lucrative, opening new sustainable revenue streams for creators.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis shift is already under way from the MrBeasts of the world, to other creators such as Like Nastya, Gemma Stafford, and more. With the wealth of audience data and insights CTV environments provide, advertisers can better align with creator-led content that reflects brand values and drives meaningful engagement.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat\u2019s the revolution: Brands finally have the precision to support creators who build\u00a0genuine communities and deliver measurable results. The next wave will be long-form IP and creator-led channels that fill the cultural and emotional gaps traditional television left behind.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>FAST\/AVOD \u2014 An Established Part of the Streaming Mix<\/h2>\n<p>The free ad-supported model that YouTube pioneered has become a fixture in the traditional content streaming marketplace.<\/p>\n<p>As the FAST (free ad-supported streaming television) sector closed out 2025, one thing was clear: The category has moved decisively beyond its early \u201ccord-cutter alternative\u201d phase and into the core of the home-entertainment ecosystem. What was once viewed as a secondary distribution outlet is now a primary viewing destination for millions of households \u2014 and an increasingly important revenue lever for platforms, programmers and advertisers alike.<\/p>\n<p>In a Looper Insights survey conducted in June 2025, nearly nine out of every 10 consumers said they\u2019d rather watch ads on a free service than pay for a subscription with ads. More than one-third of consumer respondents said they watch more FAST content than they did a year ago, and 88% said they\u2019re open to exploring free ad-supported channels. On the industry side, 83% of media execs said FAST is now central to their strategy, while 50% said they believe FAST is overcrowded or lacks standout content. FAST channels have proliferated in recent years. Gracenote, the content data business unit of Nielsen, found the number of FAST channels grew nearly 14% in 2025 through the end of July (and 76% since 2023).<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFAST has moved beyond being a free afterthought. In 2026 it\u2019s becoming a premium, intentional part of the streaming mix, a core revenue driver and a critical front door into paid ecosystems,\u201d says Looper Insights&#8217; Bertrand.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFree ad-supported streaming television (FAST) channels have emerged as a critical complement, offering a low-barrier entry point for consumers while generating new advertising revenue streams,\u201d according to Parks Associates.<\/p>\n<p>Observers say 2025 was something of a year of validation for FAST. Throughout the year, <em>Media Play News<\/em> tracked steady increases in viewing time, advertiser interest and strategic investment across major FAST platforms.<\/p>\n<p>In a 2025 survey of more than 8,000 domestic broadband households, Parks Associates found that consumers\u2019 use of free ad-based services had doubled over the past six years, from 23% in the first quarter of 2023 to 46% in the third quarter of 2025. Nearly two-thirds of respondents in the Parks study said that the fact that FAST\/AVOD services were free was their top reason for tuning in.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-328387 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Parks-Reasons-for-Free.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"900\" height=\"639\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Parks-Reasons-for-Free.jpg 900w, https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Parks-Reasons-for-Free-300x213.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Parks-Reasons-for-Free-768x545.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Parks-Reasons-for-Free-800x568.jpg 800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>One of the most important developments in 2025 was FAST\u2019s deeper integration into the broader streaming ecosystem. Rather than existing as standalone destinations, FAST increasingly became embedded within larger platforms and operating systems. Amazon\u2019s move to fold Freevee\u2019s free programming into Prime Video, and the growing prominence of FAST hubs on smart-TV home screens, underscored a shift toward aggregation and discovery over app sprawl. Indeed, Chinese TV manufacturer Hisense, via backend technology from Xumo, joined consumer electronics giants such as Vizio, LG, Samsung and TCL in offering a branded FAST service in August 2025.<\/p>\n<p>The marketplace also experienced a growing maturity in how FAST content was programmed. The emphasis in 2025 shifted away from rapid channel proliferation toward recognizable brands, franchises and libraries that drive repeat viewing.<\/p>\n<p>David Di Lorenzo, SVP of kids and family for Future Today, says 2026 will bring FAST consolidation without contraction.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe FAST space is slated to mature as the days of launching a \u2018whatever we can license\u2019 channel are over,\u201d he says. \u201cIn 2026, volume for volume\u2019s sake is out; editorial vision, thematic cohesion and audience intention are in. Viewers are no longer grazing \u2014 they\u2019re looking for streaming with a point of view. Expect a rise in creator-led channels, lifestyle verticals, and brand-aligned experiences that feel more like destinations than dumping grounds. Live content, especially news and sports, will show up more in FAST, but not as standalone plays. It will come wrapped in the infrastructure of trusted AVOD platforms where distribution, data and audience already live. That\u2019s the difference between launching a channel and launching an ecosystem. The winners will be the platforms and partners who know their audience, stay disciplined, and build with long-term resonance \u2014 not short-term trend-chasing.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe next phase of FAST growth is about quality and moments, not just channels,\u201d Looper Insights\u2019 Bertrand adds. \u201cLive events and sports are turning FAST into a frontline viewing experience for audiences.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, in 2025, free ad-supported service Tubi made history simulcasting the Super Bowl with Fox Sports. The simulcast saw a record-setting average audience of 127.7 million viewers and generated more than $800 million in gross revenue from ads.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s expected that 2026 will see increased interest in growing ad profits.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe are going to see a lot of the same as we saw for streaming entertainment platforms in 2025, but intensified to focus on increasing profits, while challenged by an increasingly crowded ad space,\u201d says Keith Valory, CEO of free ad-supported service Plex. \u201cIt\u2019s important to be conscious of the consumer\u2019s mindset in this high-pressure economy. Interest in and usage of freemium services like Plex is only going to increase. It\u2019ll make for a ripe space for advertisers to get creative, and we are focused on maximizing their creativity with premium ad bundles that can endemically reach the consumer on many surfaces of our platform.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>On the business side, measurement and credibility became central themes in 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisers pushed for more-consistent metrics, improved frequency management, and better alignment with traditional TV-buying expectations.<\/p>\n<p>In the June 2025 Looper Insights survey, 64% of viewers rated FAST as a \u201cgood or great value,\u201d but 50% of executives cited inconsistent ad tech and measurement as the most significant barriers to monetization. Viewers were showing up, but the dollars were getting stuck in the funnel, according to Looper Insights.<\/p>\n<p>As a result, FAST platforms spent much of the year tightening ad tech, refining data partnerships, and positioning themselves as reliable, brand-safe environments rather than opportunistic remnant inventory.<\/p>\n<p>Artificial intelligence will come to the rescue in smoothing the bumps in ad tech, Future Today\u2019s Mathur predicts, flipping the power dynamic in advertising within the next year.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSmall and mid-sized businesses will compete on the same playing field as the world\u2019s biggest brands \u2014 not because they\u2019re spending more, but because they\u2019re thinking smarter,\u201d he says. \u201cThe same sophistication that once required big budgets and agency-scale resources can now be achieved through intuitive, AI-powered platforms. The next wave of AI innovation will be less about flashy creative tools and more intelligence at the infrastructure level: real-time price floor optimization, dynamic audience segmentation, and contextual tracking that works without IDs or cookies.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Looking ahead in 2026, FAST is expected to enter a phase of disciplined optimization.<\/p>\n<p>Growth will continue, but it will be more intentional. Channel lineups are likely to slim down, not expand, with underperforming channels quietly sunsetting and stronger brands receiving better promotion and placement. The success metric will no longer be the sheer number of channels launched, but the efficiency with which platforms monetize viewer attention.<\/p>\n<p>FAST\u2019s role as a top-of-funnel engine should also become more explicit in 2026. Studios and rights holders are expected to use FAST strategically to extend the life of IP, reintroduce franchises, and funnel viewers toward premium SVOD tiers, transactional rentals and physical media releases.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-328388 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Looper-FAST.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"900\" height=\"510\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Looper-FAST.jpg 900w, https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Looper-FAST-300x170.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Looper-FAST-768x435.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2026-Forecast-Chart-Looper-FAST-800x453.jpg 800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In the Looper Insights survey of industry leaders about how they see FAST\u2019s role taking shape in 2026, more than half (59.2%) said that FAST will become a sustainable, premium ad-supported model in its own right. Meanwhile, one-third (34.4%) said that FAST would be a free front door that upsells views to paid streaming ecosystems. Only 2.9% said FAST is a transitional format that will shrink.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe industry now views this space as a core revenue driver \u2014 not simply a side channel, but a meaningful pillar of the wider streaming economy,\u201d the report concluded.<\/p>\n<p>A major merger of indies in 2025 underscored the durability of free ad-supported streaming as New York-based FAST\/AVOD powerhouse FilmRise was combined with Los Angeles-based Shout! Studios, also a major FAST channel supplier. Owner Oaktree Capital changed the name of the combined company to Radial Entertainment and appointed as CEO former Paramount streaming executive Jeff Shultz, who cut his teeth at free ad-supported streaming powerhouse Pluto TV.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe FAST ecosystem is maturing from an experimental phase into a core pillar of the global content economy,\u201d says David Buoymaster, chief investment officer and chief content officer at Radial Entertainment. \u201cAs audiences fragment and platforms look to distinguish themselves in an increasingly crowded and competitive marketplace, we\u2019re seeing a flight to quality \u2014 both in programming and in how platforms curate and monetize the user experience. The next wave of winners in FAST won\u2019t just be those with the most channels, but those that can align premium libraries, smart data, and differentiated brand identities to capture sustained viewer engagement.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Heading into 2026, FAST will look even more like \u201cTV,\u201d not less \u2014 with improved program guides, tighter ad loads, and packaging that appeals directly to traditional TV advertisers seeking scale without the cost structure of legacy linear, observers say.<\/p>\n<h2>Transactional \u2014 A Critical Bridge in the Release Ecosystem<\/h2>\n<p>The transactional market \u2014 including digital and physical \u2014 has become a small part of the home entertainment ecosystem, but in 2026 it is expected to sharpen its role as a premium revenue channel and a strategic bridge in the release window ecosystem.<\/p>\n<p>Top titles often follow a clear progression: theatrical, premium-priced then lower-priced digital purchase and rental, (sometimes) physical disc, SVOD and eventually free ad-supported models (FAST\/AVOD). In this model, transactional acts as the monetization bridge, ensuring that studios capture revenue before content is absorbed into flat-fee or free ad-supported environments.<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, for the year of 2025 through September, revenue for digital purchases grew a solid 4.34% to $1.75 billion, according to data from DEG: The Digital Entertainment Group.<\/p>\n<p>A 2025 Parks Associates survey found that 15% of consumers had bought or rented a movie via a connected-TV platform in the prior 30 days. Meanwhile, 6% bought or rented TV episodes.<\/p>\n<p>Collecting titles digitally is lining up as a cost-effective entertainment option, particularly with the rising price of subscription services, says Cameron Douglas, SVP of OTT\/streaming for Fandango, who heads up the company\u2019s video-on-demand streaming service Fandango at Home, one of the industry\u2019s leading digital retailers in the transactional space. Fandango is part of the new Comcast spinoff company Versant.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe remain positive about the long-term viability of this category, particularly as consumers are becoming increasingly thoughtful about their digital entertainment spending habits, where as an example so much of the growth in subscription is now coming in the lower, ad-supported tiers,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c[Traditional, transactional] home entertainment remains an important part of our ecosystem, especially in the living room,\u201d says Jonathan Zepp, managing director of entertainment content and platforms at Google, which offers digital sales and rentals of titles through its Google Play\/YouTube marketplaces.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cLooking ahead, we\u2019re optimistic about the transactional business,\u201d says Adam Frank, EVP of global partner management, sales and distribution for the Lionsgate Motion Picture Group. \u201cWith industry forecasts projecting box office growth in 2026, we expect a corresponding lift in transactional home entertainment driven by new-release conversion. Lionsgate expects to be a meaningful contributor with two major event films \u2014 <em>Michael<\/em> and <em>The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping<\/em> \u2014 along with continued momentum from our 2025 holiday breakout <em>The Housemaid<\/em> and a diverse slate across action, thriller and horror.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Lionsgate is already preparing a <em>Housemaid<\/em> sequel, based on the second novel in Freida McFadden\u2019s best-selling trilogy, <em>The Housemaid\u2019s Secret<\/em>, with plans for star Sydney Sweeney to return.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cDigital remains the strongest driver of transactional performance across our global business, underscored by robust consumer interest and the industry\u2019s embrace of high-value experiences, which are transforming the transactional landscape,\u201d says Justin Che, president of Universal Pictures Home Entertainment. \u201cAs we move through 2026, event-driven releases and major franchises \u2014 such as Steven Spielberg\u2019s highly anticipated <em>Disclosure Day<\/em>, Christopher Nolan\u2019s <em>The Odyssey<\/em>, and Illumination\u2019s <em>The Super Mario Bros. Galaxy<\/em> Movie \u2014 along with Universal\u2019s vast portfolio of catalog titles, will play a pivotal role in attracting new consumers and driving sustainable growth.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, catalog is an enticement for digital collectors.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOne stat that keeps surprising us is the massive growth of catalog TV,\u201d Douglas says. \u201cYou have your ongoing important business of whatever the hot new series is at the time, whether it\u2019s \u2018Game of Thrones,\u2019 \u2018Walking Dead,\u2019 \u2018Yellowstone,\u2019 etc. But, even with FAST channels out there dedicated to single series like \u2018Murder She Wrote\u2019 or procedurals, we still see a massive interest in classic TV and full-series digital sets.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cCatalog performance remains a key opportunity,\u201d Frank says. \u201cThe category continues to show strength despite increased SVOD and AVOD engagement, as consumers still see strong value in owning films, particularly in 4K, for instant access and the ability to build a personalized library. Catalog titles also play an important role in customer acquisition, bringing new transactors into the digital ecosystem at rates comparable to new releases.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>It wasn\u2019t all smooth sailing in the digital transactional segment in 2025. The Microsoft Movies &amp; TV Store left the business, and, for a time, Google Play\/YouTube left the digital rights locker service Movies Anywhere during a carriage dispute between YouTube TV and Disney (which runs Movies Anywhere, which allows consumers to buy an eligible title from any participating retailer and watch it through the site or another participating retailer). Online chatter mused about the continued viability of collecting content digitally. But as the year closed, Disney and YouTube TV patched up the relationship, and Google Play\/YouTube returned to Movies Anywhere, preserving stability in the digital transactional marketplace.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, revenue on physical disc purchases, the legacy transactional industry, continued its slow decline in 2025, dropping 9.21% through September to $605.1 million, according to data from the DEG. Still, the sector is bolstered by collectors that are eager to snap up the 4K Ultra HD Blu-ray format and premium Steelbooks, the DEG reports.<\/p>\n<p>Things are looking up for the physical disc business, according to Eddie Cunningham, president of Studio Distribution Services, which was established in April 2021 to distribute physical media from joint venture partners Universal Pictures and Warner Bros. Discovery.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s been an incredibly exciting year for the physical business,\u201d he says. \u201cClearly, the business trajectory is leveling out compared to what many had predicted. I think consumers are increasingly realizing the comparative benefits of packaged media, from having the best-quality picture and sound, through to the security of ownership for life. We are also beginning to see physical content becoming fashionable again with some younger consumers, and we know what happened with vinyl, so perhaps we can build on that.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Like the DEG, he points to the growth of 4K UHD sales (up 16% for catalog, and up 28% for new releases) and Steelbook sales (up 10%) as major drivers.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cCatalog sales, at least for SDS, are close to flat year-on-year for our two owners, something that was unimaginable just a few years back,\u201d he notes.<\/p>\n<p>E-commerce (up 15%) continues to fuel some of the success, both through the traditional retailers and the Gruv brand, an online shop run by Universal Pictures, he reports.<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, after several years of retreat, retail participation is stabilizing, Cunningham says.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOur retail partners have continued to lean into the category with effective holiday promotions,\u201d he says. \u201cWalmart expanded its promotional space in 2025, while Best Buy re-entered the category online through its third-party marketplace, quickly driving incremental sales with added promotional placement.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re also committed to serving physical media collectors through Lionsgate Limited, our direct-to-consumer storefront for curated specialty releases,\u201d says Lionsgate\u2019s Frank.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cDemand has exceeded expectations, and in just over a year we\u2019ve sold out multiple titles, including <em>Kill Bill Vol. 1<\/em> and <em>Vol. 2<\/em>, <em>Apocalypse Now \u2014 Final Cut<\/em>, <em>Basic Instinct<\/em> and most recently the long-awaited 4K release of <em>Dogma<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The physical disc continues to attract movie and TV content connoisseurs, Cunningham maintains.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cCollectability remains important,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<p>Collections and new-to-format releases \u2014 including first-time 4K UHD and Steelbook editions \u2014 continue to fuel demand among collectors, he says. Key 2025 catalog Steelbook releases included <em>James Bond 007: Sean Connery 6-Film Collection<\/em>, <em>The Dark Knight Trilogy<\/em>, <em>Kingdom of Heaven<\/em>, <em>Tombstone<\/em>, <em>Master and Commander: The Far Side of <\/em><em>the<\/em> <em>World<\/em> and <em>Superman 1978-1987 5-Film Collection<\/em>, he says. Franchise and collection releases remained top performers as well, he says, led by \u201cThe Lord of the Rings,\u201d \u201cVenom,\u201d \u201cHarry Potter,\u201d and \u201cJurassic World.\u201d Television franchises also performed strongly, with \u201cYellowstone,\u201d \u201cSupernatural\u201d and \u201cGame of Thrones\u201d ranking among the year\u2019s top disc sellers.<\/p>\n<p>Like consumer enthusiasts, the industry remains aware of the key attractions of physical media \u2014 including its tangible qualities.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFrom a marketing perspective, studios and retailers increasingly recognize that franchise awareness, combined with compelling artwork, premium packaging and exclusive extras, is critical to the physical consumer, clearly differentiating physical media from digital and streaming experiences,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<p><em>Additional reporting by Thomas K. Arnold and Erik Gruenwedel<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The home entertainment industry settled into a more stable pattern in 2025, with the free ad-supported streaming and transactional marketplaces complementing a subscription streaming business that began to rake in more profits and increase its dominance in Hollywood. Streaming is expected to continue to flex its muscle in 2026, with Netflix on the verge of &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/home-entertainment-forecast-2026-streaming-flexes-its-muscle-transactional-a-critical-revenue-bridge\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Home Entertainment Forecast 2026: Streaming Flexes Its Muscle, Transactional a Critical Revenue Bridge&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":327579,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20940,29,3,148,15045,23,333,28,271,653,15049],"tags":[2976,66,175,1677],"coauthors":[60],"class_list":["post-327561","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-artificial-intelligence","category-digital","category-news","category-news-analysis","category-physical-media","category-research","category-retail","category-streaming","category-studios","category-top-news-story","category-transactional-vod","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-home-entertainment","tag-streaming","tag-transactional"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Home Entertainment Forecast 2026: Streaming Flexes Its Muscle, Transactional a Critical Revenue Bridge - Media Play News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaplaynews.com\/home-entertainment-forecast-2026-streaming-flexes-its-muscle-transactional-a-critical-revenue-bridge\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Home Entertainment Forecast 2026: Streaming Flexes Its Muscle, Transactional a Critical Revenue Bridge - Media Play News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The home entertainment industry settled into a more stable pattern in 2025, with the free ad-supported streaming and transactional marketplaces complementing a subscription streaming business that began to rake in more profits and increase its dominance in Hollywood. 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